Los Angeles FC
Portland Timbers
The model leans Los Angeles FC at 57%. Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 2.14, Portland Timbers 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%. Los Angeles FC won 1 of their last 6; Portland Timbers won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Los Angeles FC | 65% | 1.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Portland Timbers | 13% | 7.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: Los Angeles FC. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.14 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.9%
- 3–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Los Angeles FC −1| Los Angeles FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 19% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.