Portland Timbers
Tijuana
The model leans Portland Timbers at 40%. Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.48, Tijuana 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Portland Timbers won 3 of their last 6; Tijuana won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portland Timbers | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Tijuana | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
Pick: Portland Timbers. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Portland Timbers −0.5| Portland Timbers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 26% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.