Austin FC
Tijuana
The model leans Austin FC at 37%. Expected goals: Austin FC 1.42, Tijuana 1.33. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. Austin FC won 2 of their last 6; Tijuana won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Austin FC | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Tijuana | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
Pick: Austin FC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Austin FC 0| Austin FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.