Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage

Seattle Sounders FC

12
Lost

Austin FC

The model leans Seattle Sounders FC at 64%. Expected goals: Seattle Sounders FC 2.44, Austin FC 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 51%. Seattle Sounders FC won 0 of their last 6; Austin FC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Seattle Sounders FC74%1.36
XDraw17%5.72
2Austin FC9%11.16

Pick: Seattle Sounders FC. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.44 – 0.76
LineOverUnder
1.583%17%
2.562%38%
3.540%60%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 2012.1%
  • 109.9%
  • 309.9%
  • 219.2%
  • 117.6%
  • 317.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Seattle Sounders FC −1.5
Seattle Sounders FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.552%48%
-152%23%26%
-0.574%26%
074%16%10%
+0.590%10%
+190%7%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.