Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage
Austin FC
1–1
Lost
Philadelphia Union
The model leans Austin FC at 42%. Expected goals: Austin FC 1.69, Philadelphia Union 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match45
26
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Austin FC | 45% | 2.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Philadelphia Union | 29% | 3.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Austin FC. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–07.1%
- 0–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Austin FC −0.5| Austin FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 22% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.