Tijuana
Cruz Azul
The model leans Tijuana at 33%. Expected goals: Tijuana 1.32, Cruz Azul 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Tijuana won 2 of their last 6; Cruz Azul won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tijuana | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Cruz Azul | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tijuana. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tijuana 0| Tijuana line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.