Toluca
Cruz Azul
The model leans Toluca at 50%. Expected goals: Toluca 1.82, Cruz Azul 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. Toluca won 5 of their last 6; Cruz Azul won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toluca | 54% | 1.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Cruz Azul | 21% | 4.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Toluca. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 3–16.0%
- 0–15.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Toluca −0.5| Toluca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.