Necaxa
Cruz Azul
The model leans Cruz Azul at 47%. Expected goals: Necaxa 1.21, Cruz Azul 1.75. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Necaxa won 0 of their last 5; Cruz Azul won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Necaxa | 25% | 3.94 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Cruz Azul | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cruz Azul. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 1.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.9%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cruz Azul −0.5| Necaxa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.