Necaxa
Leon
The model leans Necaxa at 50%. Expected goals: Necaxa 1.92, Leon 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%. Necaxa won 0 of their last 5; Leon won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Necaxa | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Leon | 21% | 4.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Necaxa. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.92 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Necaxa −1| Necaxa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.