Toluca
Necaxa
The model leans Toluca at 67%. Expected goals: Toluca 2.58, Necaxa 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 51%. Toluca won 5 of their last 6; Necaxa won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toluca | 75% | 1.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Necaxa | 8% | 12.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Toluca. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.58 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Toluca −1.5| Toluca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| -1 | 55% | 22% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.