Toluca
León
The model leans Toluca at 70%. Expected goals: Toluca 2.89, León 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 52%. Toluca won 5 of their last 6; León won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toluca | 81% | 1.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.71 | – | – | – |
| 2León | 6% | 17.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: Toluca. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 81%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.89 – 0.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.7%
- 3–011.2%
- 4–08.1%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–18.1%
- 3–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Toluca −2| Toluca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| -1 | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| -0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| 0 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.