Leon
Monterrey
The model leans Monterrey at 39%. Expected goals: Leon 1.42, Monterrey 1.65. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Leon won 5 of their last 6; Monterrey won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leon | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Monterrey | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Monterrey. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–06.6%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Leon 0| Leon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.