Monterrey
FC Juarez
The model leans Monterrey at 50%. Expected goals: Monterrey 2.13, FC Juarez 1.47. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%. Monterrey won 3 of their last 6; FC Juarez won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterrey | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.44 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Juarez | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Monterrey. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.13 – 1.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.3%
- 2–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Monterrey −0.5| Monterrey line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 21% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.