Monterrey
Chicago Fire FC
The model leans Monterrey at 37%. Expected goals: Monterrey 1.69, Chicago Fire FC 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%. Monterrey won 3 of their last 6; Chicago Fire FC won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterrey | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Chicago Fire FC | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Monterrey. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 1.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
- 0–15.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Monterrey 0| Monterrey line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 19% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 23% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.