Chicago Fire FC
Santos Laguna
The model leans Chicago Fire FC at 67%. Expected goals: Chicago Fire FC 2.92, Santos Laguna 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 61%. Chicago Fire FC won 4 of their last 5; Santos Laguna won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chicago Fire FC | 75% | 1.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Santos Laguna | 10% | 10.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chicago Fire FC. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.92 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–18.3%
- 3–08.1%
- 4–16.0%
- 4–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chicago Fire FC −2| Chicago Fire FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| -1 | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.