Monterrey
Santos Laguna
The model leans Monterrey at 56%. Expected goals: Monterrey 2.41, Santos Laguna 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%. Monterrey won 3 of their last 6; Santos Laguna won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterrey | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Santos Laguna | 15% | 6.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Monterrey. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.41 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.0%
- 3–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Monterrey −1| Monterrey line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.