Puebla
Santos Laguna
The model leans Puebla at 40%. Expected goals: Puebla 1.62, Santos Laguna 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Puebla won 2 of their last 6; Santos Laguna won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Puebla | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Santos Laguna | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Puebla. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 1.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Puebla −0.5| Puebla line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 22% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 24% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 18% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.