Santos Laguna
Chivas
The model leans Chivas at 52%. Expected goals: Santos Laguna 1.18, Chivas 2.17. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%. Santos Laguna won 0 of their last 6; Chivas won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santos Laguna | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Chivas | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chivas. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.18 – 2.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–28.3%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–37.0%
- 0–36.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chivas −1| Santos Laguna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 12% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.