Puebla
Chivas
The model leans Chivas at 53%. Expected goals: Puebla 0.96, Chivas 1.95. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%. Puebla won 2 of their last 6; Chivas won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Puebla | 17% | 5.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Chivas | 60% | 1.68 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chivas. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.96 – 1.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 0–110.6%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.8%
- 1–36.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chivas −1| Puebla line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| +0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| +1 | 39% | 24% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.