Pachuca
Puebla
The model leans Pachuca at 61%. Expected goals: Pachuca 2.03, Puebla 0.61. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 60%. Pachuca won 0 of their last 3; Puebla won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pachuca | 70% | 1.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Puebla | 9% | 10.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pachuca. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 0.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.8%
- 1–014.6%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 43% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pachuca −1.5| Pachuca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.