San Diego FC
Puebla
The model leans San Diego FC at 69%. Expected goals: San Diego FC 3.11, Puebla 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 56%. San Diego FC won 5 of their last 6; Puebla won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Diego FC | 81% | 1.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Puebla | 7% | 15.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Diego FC. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 81%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.11 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 3–09.5%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–17.9%
- 4–07.4%
- 4–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Diego FC −2| San Diego FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| -1 | 63% | 18% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.