Portland Timbers
San Diego FC
The model leans San Diego FC at 37%. Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.74, San Diego FC 1.77. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. Portland Timbers won 3 of their last 6; San Diego FC won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portland Timbers | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.15 | – | – | – |
| 2San Diego FC | 39% | 2.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Diego FC. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 1.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.3%
- 1–05.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Portland Timbers 0| Portland Timbers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 19% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 22% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 19% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.