Predictions · Leagues Cup · outside model coverage

Los Angeles FC

11
Lost

Chivas

The model leans Los Angeles FC at 50%. Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.81, Chivas 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. Los Angeles FC won 1 of their last 6; Chivas won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Los Angeles FC53%1.87
XDraw25%3.97
2Chivas21%4.67

Pick: Los Angeles FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.81 – 1.08
LineOverUnder
1.578%22%
2.555%45%
3.533%67%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.8%
  • 1010.0%
  • 219.8%
  • 209.1%
  • 016.0%
  • 315.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Los Angeles FC −0.5
Los Angeles FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.531%69%
-131%24%45%
-0.555%45%
055%23%22%
+0.578%22%
+178%14%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.