Predictions · Leagues Cup · outside model coverage

Los Angeles FC

11
Lost

Queretaro FC

The model leans Los Angeles FC at 62%. Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 2.11, Queretaro FC 0.61. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 59%. Los Angeles FC won 1 of their last 6; Queretaro FC won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Los Angeles FC72%1.40
XDraw20%5.03
2Queretaro FC9%11.61

Pick: Los Angeles FC. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.11 – 0.61
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes40%No60%

Most likely scores

  • 2014.7%
  • 1013.9%
  • 3010.3%
  • 219.0%
  • 118.5%
  • 006.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 45% · BTTS No 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Los Angeles FC −1.5
Los Angeles FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.547%53%
-147%25%28%
-0.572%28%
072%18%9%
+0.591%9%
+191%7%2%
+1.598%2%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.