Cruz Azul
Chicago Fire FC
The model leans Cruz Azul at 50%. Expected goals: Cruz Azul 2.00, Chicago Fire FC 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%. Cruz Azul won 3 of their last 6; Chicago Fire FC won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cruz Azul | 54% | 1.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Chicago Fire FC | 23% | 4.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cruz Azul. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.00 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cruz Azul −0.5| Cruz Azul line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 22% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 22% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.