Chicago Fire FC
Necaxa
The model leans Chicago Fire FC at 60%. Expected goals: Chicago Fire FC 2.42, Necaxa 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%. Chicago Fire FC won 4 of their last 5; Necaxa won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chicago Fire FC | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Necaxa | 14% | 7.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chicago Fire FC. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.42 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chicago Fire FC −1.5| Chicago Fire FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 22% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.