Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage

Colorado Rapids

20
Won

Sporting Kansas City

The model leans Colorado Rapids at 67%. Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 2.77, Sporting Kansas City 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 56%. Colorado Rapids won 4 of their last 6; Sporting Kansas City won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Colorado Rapids76%1.31
XDraw15%6.53
2Sporting Kansas City9%11.57

Pick: Colorado Rapids. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.77 – 0.88
LineOverUnder
1.588%12%
2.570%30%
3.549%51%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 2010.0%
  • 309.2%
  • 218.8%
  • 318.1%
  • 107.2%
  • 406.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Colorado Rapids −2
Colorado Rapids lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.556%44%
-156%20%23%
-0.577%23%
077%14%9%
+0.591%9%
+191%7%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.