Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United
The model leans Minnesota United at 51%. Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.12, Minnesota United 1.94. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Sporting Kansas City won 1 of their last 6; Minnesota United won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting Kansas City | 21% | 4.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Minnesota United | 55% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Minnesota United. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 1.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–36.4%
- 0–35.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Minnesota United −1| Sporting Kansas City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 13% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.