Los Angeles FC
Sporting Kansas City
The model leans Los Angeles FC at 71%. Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 3.18, Sporting Kansas City 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 54%. Los Angeles FC won 1 of their last 6; Sporting Kansas City won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Los Angeles FC | 86% | 1.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 10% | 9.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting Kansas City | 4% | 24.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Los Angeles FC. Calibrated probability 71% (raw model output 86%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 96%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.18 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 3–011.7%
- 2–011.0%
- 4–09.3%
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Los Angeles FC −2| Los Angeles FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| -1 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| -0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| 0 | 86% | 10% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 3% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.