Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo FC
The model leans Houston Dynamo FC at 50%. Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.22, Houston Dynamo FC 1.89. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. Sporting Kansas City won 1 of their last 6; Houston Dynamo FC won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting Kansas City | 23% | 4.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Houston Dynamo FC | 52% | 1.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Houston Dynamo FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–28.0%
- 2–16.3%
- 1–36.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Houston Dynamo FC −0.5| Sporting Kansas City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 22% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.