Vancouver Whitecaps
Houston Dynamo FC
The model leans Vancouver Whitecaps at 63%. Expected goals: Vancouver Whitecaps 2.49, Houston Dynamo FC 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 54%. Vancouver Whitecaps won 3 of their last 6; Houston Dynamo FC won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vancouver Whitecaps | 72% | 1.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Houston Dynamo FC | 10% | 9.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.49 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vancouver Whitecaps −1.5| Vancouver Whitecaps line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| -0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| 0 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.