Houston Dynamo FC
Austin FC
The model leans Houston Dynamo FC at 50%. Expected goals: Houston Dynamo FC 1.98, Austin FC 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. Houston Dynamo FC won 4 of their last 6; Austin FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Houston Dynamo FC | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Austin FC | 21% | 4.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Houston Dynamo FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.98 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Houston Dynamo FC −1| Houston Dynamo FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.