Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage

Colorado Rapids

10
Won

Real Salt Lake

The model leans Colorado Rapids at 41%. Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 1.66, Real Salt Lake 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Colorado Rapids won 4 of their last 6; Real Salt Lake won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Colorado Rapids44%2.27
XDraw26%3.82
2Real Salt Lake30%3.36

Pick: Colorado Rapids. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.66 – 1.34
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.558%42%
3.535%65%
Both teams to scoreYes60%No40%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.1%
  • 219.2%
  • 108.3%
  • 127.4%
  • 206.9%
  • 016.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Colorado Rapids −0.5
Colorado Rapids lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%22%55%
-0.545%55%
045%24%31%
+0.569%31%
+169%17%14%
+1.586%14%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.