San Jose Earthquakes
St. Louis City
The model leans San Jose Earthquakes at 53%. Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 2.29, St. Louis City 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%. San Jose Earthquakes won 0 of their last 6; St. Louis City won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Jose Earthquakes | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
| 2St. Louis City | 18% | 5.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Jose Earthquakes. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.29 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 3–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Jose Earthquakes −1| San Jose Earthquakes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 19% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.