San Jose Earthquakes
LA Galaxy
The model leans San Jose Earthquakes at 60%. Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 2.59, LA Galaxy 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 64%. San Jose Earthquakes won 0 of their last 6; LA Galaxy won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Jose Earthquakes | 67% | 1.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.45 | – | – | – |
| 2LA Galaxy | 15% | 6.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Jose Earthquakes. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.59 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–06.7%
- 1–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Jose Earthquakes −1.5| San Jose Earthquakes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 21% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.