San Jose Earthquakes
Orlando City
The model leans San Jose Earthquakes at 69%. Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 3.63, Orlando City 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 71%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Jose Earthquakes | 79% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Orlando City | 9% | 11.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Jose Earthquakes. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.63 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 72% | 28% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.6%
- 4–16.9%
- 2–16.3%
- 3–05.8%
- 4–05.2%
- 5–15.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Jose Earthquakes −2| San Jose Earthquakes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| -1 | 63% | 16% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 11% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.