LA Galaxy
FC Dallas
The model leans FC Dallas at 38%. Expected goals: LA Galaxy 1.70, FC Dallas 1.81. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. LA Galaxy won 1 of their last 6; FC Dallas won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1LA Galaxy | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.15 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Dallas | 40% | 2.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Dallas. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.70 – 1.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.4%
- 1–05.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: LA Galaxy 0| LA Galaxy line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 18% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 22% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 19% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.