St. Louis City
Sporting Kansas City
The model leans St. Louis City at 68%. Expected goals: St. Louis City 2.90, Sporting Kansas City 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 54%. St. Louis City won 4 of their last 6; Sporting Kansas City won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Louis City | 79% | 1.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting Kansas City | 7% | 13.74 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Louis City. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.90 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.1%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.1%
- 4–07.1%
- 1–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Louis City −2| St. Louis City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| -1 | 60% | 20% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.