Zenit St. Petersburg
Dynamo Makhachkala
The model leans Zenit St. Petersburg at 60%. Expected goals: Zenit St. Petersburg 1.50, Dynamo Makhachkala 0.32. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 78%. Zenit St. Petersburg won 3 of their last 6; Dynamo Makhachkala won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zenit St. Petersburg | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Dynamo Makhachkala | 7% | 14.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zenit St. Petersburg. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 0.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes21% | No79% |
Most likely scores
- 1–024.3%
- 2–018.2%
- 0–016.2%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zenit St. Petersburg −1| Zenit St. Petersburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 31% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 25% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 7% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.