Zenit St. Petersburg
Dinamo Moscow
The model leans Zenit St. Petersburg at 50%. Expected goals: Zenit St. Petersburg 1.47, Dinamo Moscow 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%. Zenit St. Petersburg won 3 of their last 6; Dinamo Moscow won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zenit St. Petersburg | 53% | 1.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Dinamo Moscow | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zenit St. Petersburg. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zenit St. Petersburg −0.5| Zenit St. Petersburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 27% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 14% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.