Dinamo Moscow
FK Akhmat
The model leans Dinamo Moscow at 51%. Expected goals: Dinamo Moscow 1.71, FK Akhmat 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%. Dinamo Moscow won 4 of their last 6; FK Akhmat won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dinamo Moscow | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.87 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Akhmat | 16% | 6.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dinamo Moscow. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.71 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.8%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.1%
- 3–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dinamo Moscow −1| Dinamo Moscow line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.