FK Akhmat
Fakel
The model leans Draw at 36%. Expected goals: FK Akhmat 0.83, Fakel 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 67%. FK Akhmat won 2 of their last 6; Fakel won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Akhmat | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Fakel | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–019.1%
- 1–015.9%
- 0–115.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–06.6%
- 0–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 65% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Akhmat 0| FK Akhmat line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 22% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 35% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 22% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.