Fakel
Zenit St. Petersburg
The model leans Zenit St. Petersburg at 42%. Expected goals: Fakel 0.54, Zenit St. Petersburg 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 72%. Fakel won 0 of their last 6; Zenit St. Petersburg won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fakel | 18% | 5.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Zenit St. Petersburg | 46% | 2.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zenit St. Petersburg. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.54 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 79% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 0–121.5%
- 0–021.0%
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zenit St. Petersburg −0.5| Fakel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 15% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 34% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.