Fakel
FC Orenburg
The model leans Fakel at 50%. Expected goals: Fakel 1.19, FC Orenburg 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 70%. Fakel won 0 of their last 6; FC Orenburg won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fakel | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Orenburg | 16% | 6.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fakel. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 1–021.2%
- 0–017.9%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fakel −0.5| Fakel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 31% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 13% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.