FC Orenburg
Rubin Kazan
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: FC Orenburg 0.59, Rubin Kazan 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 74%. FC Orenburg won 1 of their last 6; Rubin Kazan won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Orenburg | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Rubin Kazan | 38% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.59 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% |
| Both teams to score | Yes25% | No75% |
Most likely scores
- 0–024.1%
- 0–120.2%
- 1–014.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–24.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Orenburg 0| FC Orenburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 18% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 37% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 26% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.