Baltika
Rubin Kazan
The model leans Draw at 39%. Expected goals: Baltika 0.79, Rubin Kazan 0.47. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 79%. Baltika won 2 of their last 6; Rubin Kazan won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Baltika | 39% | 2.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Rubin Kazan | 19% | 5.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 0.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 87% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 96% |
| Both teams to score | Yes20% | No80% |
Most likely scores
- 0–028.5%
- 1–022.5%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–08.8%
- 2–14.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 70% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Baltika 0| Baltika line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 27% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 16% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.