Baltika
Dynamo Makhachkala
The model leans Baltika at 50%. Expected goals: Baltika 1.06, Dynamo Makhachkala 0.40. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 78%. Baltika won 2 of their last 6; Dynamo Makhachkala won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Baltika | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.76 | – | – | – |
| 2Dynamo Makhachkala | 13% | 7.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Baltika. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.06 – 0.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 82% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% |
| Both teams to score | Yes21% | No79% |
Most likely scores
- 1–024.7%
- 0–023.4%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–15.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Baltika −0.5| Baltika line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 30% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 11% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.