Krylya Sovetov Samara
Baltika
The model leans Baltika at 43%. Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov Samara 0.81, Baltika 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%. Krylya Sovetov Samara won 1 of their last 6; Baltika won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Krylya Sovetov Samara | 22% | 4.52 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Baltika | 46% | 2.15 | – | – | – |
Pick: Baltika. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.81 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 1–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Baltika −0.5| Krylya Sovetov Samara line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 16% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.