Akron Togliatti
Krylya Sovetov Samara
The model leans Krylya Sovetov Samara at 36%. Expected goals: Akron Togliatti 1.54, Krylya Sovetov Samara 1.55. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. Akron Togliatti won 1 of their last 6; Krylya Sovetov Samara won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Akron Togliatti | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Krylya Sovetov Samara | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Krylya Sovetov Samara. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 1.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Akron Togliatti 0| Akron Togliatti line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 19% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 20% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.