Akron Togliatti
Lokomotiv Moscow
The model leans Lokomotiv Moscow at 50%. Expected goals: Akron Togliatti 1.33, Lokomotiv Moscow 1.95. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. Akron Togliatti won 1 of their last 6; Lokomotiv Moscow won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Akron Togliatti | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Lokomotiv Moscow | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lokomotiv Moscow. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.33 – 1.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.4%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–16.5%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lokomotiv Moscow −0.5| Akron Togliatti line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.